From Jamaica to Puerto Rico to Trinidad: the Caribbean's drought is regional, not local

The Jamaican government's decision follows a high-level stakeholder meeting with the NWC and the Meteorological Service confirming that rainfall levels remain critically low while temperatures continue to rise.

• The prohibition orders will ban NWC customers in the seven named parishes from using piped water for non-essential purposes, including irrigating gardens, lawns and farms; filling ponds or swimming pools; washing vehicles with a hose; and washing roadways, pavements, paths, garages or outrooms.
• The Ministry of Water, Environment and Climate Change says penalties may apply under the prohibition orders to individuals and entities found in breach.
• Jamaica's Meteorological Service director Evan Thompson confirmed that parishes including St Elizabeth, St James, St Ann and St Mary were already in drought as of late June, with Manchester and St Catherine moving toward drought conditions — a situation expected to have worsened through July.
• The drought mitigation cost to the Jamaican government could reach an estimated $500 million if dry conditions persist through coming months, according to reports from the ministry briefing.
• In Trinidad and Tobago, the Water and Sewerage Authority (WASA) has confirmed that reservoirs remain below full capacity despite recent partial recovery, while Public Utilities Minister Barry Padarath says his government has ramped up desalinated water production through Desalcott and is exploring a mobile desalination facility for Tobago.
• Guadeloupe's prefecture has placed Grande-Terre and the island of Désirade under a formal drought alert, restricting individuals, businesses and farmers from filling swimming pools, washing cars at home, cleaning driveways with water and watering large lawns.

Commercial operations reliant on high water use — car washes, laundries, agricultural irrigators — face immediate revenue loss across the seven Jamaican parishes, and officials say preserving supply for critical services, including schools, is a key concern ahead of the September term reopening.

Beyond Jamaica, the regional picture is stark: Puerto Rico has already implemented rotating 48-hour shutoffs affecting roughly 180,000 properties, and the US Drought Monitor shows only 17.68% of the US Caribbean escaped some degree of abnormal dryness as of late July 2026. In Cuba, nearly 3 million people are experiencing difficulty accessing water, according to the National Institute of Hydraulic Resources, with the water system operating on just 37% of the fuel it requires.

The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) has warned that as El Niño strengthens, the probability of rainfall-generating tropical activity decreases, meaning conditions are unlikely to ease quickly.

What to watch: • Whether Jamaica's Meteorological Service's rolling three-month forecast (August–October) improves or worsens after July rainfall data is collated — the threshold that determines whether prohibition orders are extended or lifted. • The operational timeline for Trinidad and Tobago's proposed mobile desalination facility for Tobago, which ministers say could come online within weeks. • Reservoir levels at Puerto Rico's Carraízo reservoir and Jamaica's major reservoirs as the peak of the dry season approaches and the September school term begins.

"San Juan reported its driest July since records began in 1899 — just 0.54 inches, or 9 percent of normal — and its driest combined June-July period on record at 2.06 inches, 20 percent of normal."

— US Drought Monitor / Caribbean Drought Summary, July 2026

Government action is necessary but economically painful: Jamaica's Minister of Water, Environment and Climate Change Matthew Samuda has acknowledged a disproportionate economic burden on commercial users such as car washes but says the government's overriding obligation is to protect water supply for essential services.

El Niño alone does not explain the crisis — structural failures are equally to blame: Puerto Rican hydrologist Odeh Quiñones argues that climate change is intensifying each El Niño cycle, and that the Caribbean's water crises reflect long-standing failures in infrastructure and governance rather than weather alone. She warns that treating the crisis as a purely natural phenomenon obscures the need for structural, climate-linked action.

Infrastructure losses compound every drought — nearly half of treated water never reaches consumers: Researchers note that the Caribbean's average non-revenue water loss stands at 46%— with some utilities losing as much as 75% — meaning drought severity is systematically amplified by leaks, ageing pipes and weak governance before a single tap is turned off.

"This could result in lower inflows into our reservoirs, which in turn may affect the availability of water for domestic, agricultural, industrial and commercial use."

— Shakeer Baig, Director, Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service, via Trinidad Guardian