Could Jamaica finally strike oil? Seabed study boosts prospects

UK-listed United Oil & Gas has completed all three stages of its Seabed Geochemical Exploration programme on Jamaica's 22,400-square-kilometre Walton-Morant Licence — successfully retrieving sediment cores from all 42 offshore sites to test for thermogenic hydrocarbons — a milestone that could lift the block's geological chance of success from one-in-four to one-in-three, while supercharging farm-out talks that could deliver Jamaica its first-ever commercial offshore oil discovery.

United Oil & Gas plc has completed all three stages of its Surface Geochemical Exploration (SGE) programme on Jamaica's Walton-Morant Licence, marking the most significant technical milestone yet in the island's decades-long pursuit of commercial offshore oil.

The UK-listed explorer confirmed the successful retrieval of seabed sediment cores from all 42 piston coring sites selected during Stage 3 of the programme — a result CEO Brian Larkin described as "a fantastic achievement." 

The cores are now being shipped to TDI Brooks laboratories in the United States, where geochemical analysis will test for the presence of thermogenic hydrocarbons — substances generated by heat and pressure deep underground that would confirm an active petroleum system beneath Jamaica's waters. Initial results are expected within weeks.

The three-stage programme unfolded sequentially across the 22,400-square-kilometre licence block. 

Stage 1 deployed a multibeam echosounder survey, acquiring 1,189 line kilometres of high-resolution seabed mapping data. Stage 2 used heat-flow probes across both the Walton and Morant basins to refine geological modelling, while Stage 3 used that integrated dataset to pinpoint coring locations clustered near high-density prospects, including Colibri, Streamertail and Oriole in the Walton Basin.

Successful completion of the programme is independently assessed to improve the block's geological chance of success from roughly one-in-four to one-in-three. 

The licence carries an independently audited estimate of at least 2.4 billion barrels of unrisked mean prospective resources. United, which has held 100%  ownership of the block since consolidating from an original 20%  stake acquired in 2017, says it will simultaneously advance farm-out discussions with potential drilling partners.

• All 42 piston coring sites successfully sampled — 100% retrieval rate • Cores shipped to TDI Brooks laboratories in the US; results expected within weeks • Stage 1: 1,189 line kilometres of seabed mapping data acquired • Stage 2: Heat-flow probes deployed across Walton and Morant basins • Stage 3: Coring focused near Colibri, Streamertail and Oriole prospects • Geological chance of success projected to rise from ~1-in-4 to 1-in-3 • Licence spans 22,400 sq km with 2.4 billion barrels unrisked mean prospective resources • United Oil & Gas holds 100% of Walton-Morant Licence; originally farmed in at 20% in 2017 • Farm-out talks to advance alongside lab analysis

The Impact

For Jamaica, the stakes could hardly be higher. 

The island has pursued offshore oil exploration intermittently for decades without ever achieving commercial production — a frustration compounded by the country's heavy dependence on imported energy. A confirmed active petroleum system beneath the Walton-Morant block, which spans 22,400 square kilometres off Jamaica's southern coast, would represent a seismic shift in that reality.

The block carries an independently audited estimate of at least 2.4 billion barrels of unrisked mean prospective resources. Improving the geological chance of success from one-in-four to one-in-three may sound incremental, but in exploration terms it is a material reduction in risk — precisely the kind of signal needed to attract a major, well-capitalised drilling partner. 

United's CEO has described the prospect of an eventual drilling phase as potentially "transformational" for Jamaica, and few in the region would disagree.

Predictions: • Geochemical results from TDI Brooks laboratories expected within weeks of core delivery could trigger a significant farm-out announcement • Positive thermogenic hydrocarbon confirmation would likely accelerate United's ability to secure a deep-pocketed drilling partner • A successful farm-out deal could position Jamaica as the Caribbean's next major offshore exploration story within 12-24 months

Social Conversation: negative

Social media posts about Jamaica reveal largely negative sentiments focusing on identity, US influence, and immigration challenges.

Jamaican identityUS-Jamaica relationsimmigration issues

Voices on X

"@Lightwalkerrx @TeeTouchza @ChallzBrownLife WORLD renowned jazz musicians from MEMPHIS Tennessee

You being a Jamaican Canadian would know this but that’s THE SOUTH, one of the most blackest cities in the United States, that’s where he spent his summers

He’s a Canadian American "

@reelmasshole2 · 21m ago · View on X

"It took Iran punching the United States in the mouth to reveal how the Jamaican government could ever turn their back on the Jamaican people, Cuba and Venezuela in their time of need.

Jamaica is in the pocket of the Epstein Class. Do the math. https://t.co/Z7MYXk7aw7"

@Circut144882 · Earth · 1h ago · View on X

"That baby is not a citizen of the United States. Her mother is a Jamaican citizen and that’s what the baby is. End of conversation. https://t.co/cQPWPkaQ9C"

@kenpolover · 12h ago · View on X

"🇯🇲--🇺🇸 Farrin Is No Bed of Roses...🇯🇲A Jamaican living in the United States. #Jamaican #yardiememories https://t.co/nK7uYk45Go"

@sleepy007bond · Tonawanda, NY · 13h ago · View on X

Based on 19 posts from X · Apr 9, 2026

Viewpoint: For a small island economy that spends hundreds of millions of US dollars annually importing petroleum, the numbers from the Walton-Morant Licence are genuinely arresting. 

An independently audited 2.4 billion barrels of unrisked mean prospective resources sits beneath 22,400 square kilometres of Jamaican waters — and United Oil & Gas has now physically sampled all 42 target sites without a single retrieval failure. 

That 100% success rate is not a footnote; it is the kind of technical credibility that moves farm-out conversations from polite interest to serious negotiation. If TDI Brooks confirms thermogenic hydrocarbons in the coming weeks, the Caribbean's energy map could look very different within a decade.

Viewpoint: Jamaica has heard encouraging offshore news before, and the silence that followed was deafening. 

A one-in-three geological chance of success is materially better than one-in-four — but it still means the odds favour disappointment. Geochemical surveys confirm petroleum systems; they do not guarantee commercial strikes. 

The critical missing piece remains a well-capitalised drilling partner willing to commit hundreds of millions of US dollars to a frontier block. Until a farm-out deal is signed and a rig is contracted, the Walton-Morant Licence is a compelling prospect, not a producing asset. The cores are shipped. The results will tell the real story.

Jamaica has chased the offshore oil dream for decades without a commercial strike. 

Meanwhile it has seen Trinidad and Tobago, and now Guyana, profit from the oil and natural gas under their waters. Could Jamaica - or even Cuba - be next to inherit a gold-egg laying goose?

United Oil & Gas has now completed all 42 sediment cores from the Walton-Morant Licence — a 22,400-square-kilometre block carrying an independently audited 2.4 billion barrels of unrisked prospective resources. That is not nothing. 

Neither is the prospect of lifting geological success odds from one-in-four to one-in-three once TDI Brooks laboratories in Houston deliver their geochemical verdict within weeks.

But Jamaica has been here before — promising surveys, cautious optimism, then silence. What makes this moment different is the explicit link to farm-out talks and a potential drilling phase. A deep-pocketed partner is the missing piece. 

If Jamaica does become the next Guyana - it should look carefully at the lessons that other oil-producing nations have learned and are still learning. Norway, with its Norway Oil Fund, is the gold-standard. There are many other examples of countries that have barely benefitted from their oil largess - including Venezuela, Nigeria and South Sudan. A resource curse? 

How much did and does Jamaica benefit from its alumina industry? Will it learn lessons from how it handled the industry in the 1970s when it charged a bauxite levy?

Guyana is just embarking on developing its oil industry, and it is likely to have many lessons for whichever Caribbean state is the next to uncover significant oil reserves - even now as the world starts to move away from oil.

Many environmentalists may not be happy that Jamaica could soon be pumping oil.

But its still very early days.

The cores are shipped. The data will speak. Caribbean nations watching their energy import bills climb cannot afford for this to be another false dawn.