Laura Fernandez wins Costa Rica presidency on populist wave

Laura Fernández has won Costa Rica's presidency with 48% of the vote, becoming the country's second female president and securing her mentor Rodrigo Chaves' populist movement a legislative majority that will reshape the nation's political landscape for years to come.

Laura Fernández won Costa Rica's presidency on February 1, 2026, securing approximately 48% of the vote and avoiding a runoff—the first time this has occurred since 2010. Her closest rivals garnered around 33% and 5% respectively. The political scientist and former minister will become Costa Rica's 50th president and second female head of state when she takes office on May 8, 2026. Her party, PPSO, won 31 of 57 legislative seats, giving it a governing majority but falling short of the 38 seats required for constitutional reforms. Twenty political parties fielded candidates, though only five presented viable options. The election was framed as a plebiscite on the populist agenda of term-limited President Rodrigo Chaves, for whom Fernández served as minister of national planning and minister of the presidency.

Fernández's decisive victory signals that Chaves' populist movement has fundamentally reshaped Costa Rican politics, ending decades of traditional party dominance. With a legislative majority, she can pass security and economic reforms unilaterally—unlike Chaves, who blamed an opposition-controlled legislature for blocking his agenda. However, her inability to achieve constitutional reforms without opposition support creates a critical constraint on her stated goal of founding a "Third Republic" with expanded executive powers and indefinite presidential reelection.

The election devastated traditional opposition parties: two current legislative blocs will have no seats in the next term, and another will drop from nine seats to one. This collapse leaves Costa Rica's democratic checks and balances severely weakened at precisely the moment when social investment in health and education has reached historic lows.

"Between 2023 and 2025, 5,700 people died while on the surgical waiting list of the Caja Costarricense de Seguro Social, or national social security fund."

— Americas Quarterly analysis

Populist movement consolidation: Fernández's win signals that Chaves' movement is here to stay and will continue shaping Costa Rican politics for years. Running on continuidad del cambio, she secured high turnout and avoided a runoff—a first since 2010. Unlike Chaves, she won't be able to blame legislative opposition if she fails to deliver, as her party holds a governing majority of 31 seats.

Opposition failure and warning: The victory confirms that opposition parties including Partido de Liberación Nacional, Coalición Agenda Ciudadana, and Frente Amplio are seen by voters as elitist and out of touch. If they plan to regain the presidency, they will have to make serious efforts at rebranding and coalition-building. The sum of opposition parties retains ability to block issues requiring two-thirds of legislators.

Democratic crisis amid social deterioration: The election was presented as a plebiscite between a liberal alternative along traditional Costa Rican democracy lines and Chaves' radical populist project aiming to establish more powerful executive branch, indefinite presidential reelection, and diminished checks and balances. This comes as public health and education have systematically deteriorated, public transportation is in shambles, and drug-driven crime is rampant.

"It's up to us to build the third republic. Costa Rica's second republic founded in 1948 is a thing of the past."

— Laura Fernández, President-elect of Costa Rica, via Americas Quarterly

Fernández's landslide victory should concern anyone who values Costa Rican democracy and its historic model of social investment that made it a Caribbean and Latin American standout. While voters' frustration with crime and economic stagnation is legitimate, the solution cannot be dismantling the constitutional checks and balances that have kept Costa Rica stable for nearly eight decades.

The real test comes now: Will Fernández use her legislative majority to restore investment in the education and healthcare systems that built Costa Rica's success, or will she prioritize her mentor's project of concentrating executive power? The fact that 5,700 people died on surgical waiting lists while the current administration focused on constitutional reform tells us where priorities have been.

Caribbean nations watching this election should take note. Populist movements that promise decisive action against crime and corruption often deliver neither—instead weakening the democratic institutions that provide long-term stability. Costa Rica's opposition parties failed their country by becoming disconnected from voters' real concerns. The question now is whether Fernández will address those concerns or exploit them to remake Costa Rica's democracy in Chaves' authoritarian image.