US eases Venezuela oil ban to Cuba amid regional crisis

The United States has partially eased its ban on Venezuelan oil exports to Cuba amid a deepening economic crisis on the island, as Caribbean leaders warn that Cuba's collapse would destabilize the entire region — while a deadly coastguard shooting and a new executive order threatening tariffs on Cuba's oil suppliers escalate tensions further.

The US Treasury Department announced it would allow Venezuelan oil exports to Cuba for commercial and humanitarian use, provided the transactions go through private businesses rather than the Cuban government or military. The announcement came during a CARICOM summit in Saint Kitts and Nevis attended by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who defended the January 3 operation that deposed Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro. Simultaneously, President Trump signed an executive order on January 29, 2026, declaring a national emergency on Cuba under the IEEPA and authorizing tariffs on goods from any country that sells or provides oil to Cuba. Cuba's coastguard killed four people and injured six others on a Florida-registered speedboat off Villa Clara province, with conflicting accounts of who fired first. Canada announced Can$8 million in aid for Cuba, while Mexico dispatched nearly 2,200 tons of aid. Florida's attorney general opened an investigation into the coastguard shooting.

The partial easing of oil restrictions offers only marginal relief for Cuba, whose economy remains in freefall. The requirement that oil flow through private businesses — not the state apparatus that controls much of Cuba's economy — creates a significant practical barrier. Meanwhile, the new executive order targeting countries that supply oil to Cuba could strain the US-Mexico trade relationship ahead of the critical USMCA six-year review, potentially affecting all of Latin America and the Caribbean.

"Cuba relied on Venezuela for about half its fuel needs before Maduro's removal. Mexico now supplies more oil to Cuba than any other country, making it the primary target of the new US tariff executive order."

— Holland & Knight analysis of Executive Order, January 29, 2026

Caribbean leaders urge de-escalation and humanitarian relief: CARICOM leaders warned that Cuba's economic collapse would destabilize the entire Caribbean and trigger mass migration. Jamaica's PM called for constructive dialogue between Cuba and the US aimed at de-escalation, reform and stability. Saint Kitts' PM, who trained as a doctor in Cuba, cited reports of food scarcity and deteriorating conditions.

US defends Venezuela operation and maintains maximum pressure on Cuba: Rubio defended the Maduro operation without apology and said Venezuela had made substantial progress. Meanwhile, Rep. Giménez requested Mexico stop sending oil to Cuba and called for suspending US-Cuba commercial flights and restricting remittances, acknowledging these measures may temporarily worsen conditions for the Cuban people.

Florida authorities demand accountability for coastguard shooting: Florida's attorney general launched an investigation into the shooting, declaring that the Cuban government cannot be trusted. He directed the Office of Statewide Prosecution to work with federal and state partners, becoming the first US official to comment publicly on the deadly incident.

"A prolonged crisis in Cuba will not remain confined to Cuba."

— Andrew Holness, Prime Minister of Jamaica, via US eases ban on Venezuelan oil to Cuba as crisis alarms Caribbean

Washington is playing a dangerous game of contradictions in the Caribbean's backyard. Easing Venezuelan oil to Cuba while simultaneously threatening tariffs on any nation — particularly Mexico — that dares supply Havana with fuel is not diplomacy; it is coercion dressed as concession. The requirement that oil flow only through private businesses in a state-dominated economy renders the gesture largely hollow.

CARICOM leaders see what Washington apparently cannot — or will not. As Holness warned plainly: Cuba's collapse will not stay in Cuba. Four people dead off Villa Clara's coast already prove that escalating tensions carry a body count.

The Caribbean has always absorbed the consequences of great power brinkmanship. This region cannot afford another failed state 90 miles from Florida. Canada's Can$8 million aid and Mexico's 2,200 tons of supplies show that pragmatism exists. Washington should take note.